Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.1% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 25-17 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 61.7%
Defensive zone
Zacha 65.4%
Neutral zone
Zacha 65.1%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Zacha
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
25
(42 meetings)
17
25
Zacha
Stamkos
Last 10: Zacha 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
5
8
Zacha
Stamkos
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Zacha
Stamkos
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
6
11
Zacha
Stamkos
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,102)
50.4% (9,799)
-1.5%
Power Play
55.6% (804)
55.1% (1,725)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (555)
49.7% (825)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Zacha shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Zacha
Stamkos
Home
49.7% (3,353)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
48.5% (3,108)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Zacha
Stamkos
P1
49.9%
49.1%
P2
49.2%
52.7%
P3
48.1%
50.9%
OT
53.1%
54.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:16 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:55 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | OT | 00:17 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 3 | 00:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 3, 2018 | 1 | 19:48 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |