Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs Hertl 56.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 64.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.9%
Neutral zone
Zacha 51.6%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Zacha
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Zacha
Hertl
Last 9: Zacha 4-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Zacha
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Zacha
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
57.0% (718)
-3.1%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
64.9% (188)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
44.2% (77)
+0.1%
On even strength, Hertl has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Zacha shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Zacha
Hertl
Home
56.7% (538)
59.2% (463)
Away
52.8% (530)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Zacha
Hertl
P1
52.6%
56.3%
P2
54.8%
55.4%
P3
56.8%
60.5%
OT
59.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
54.8%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 09:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |