Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.4%
Defensive zone
Zacha 64.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Zacha
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Zacha
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Zacha
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (646)
58.1% (823)
-4.8%
Power Play
53.0% (100)
56.2% (265)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (72)
62.9% (35)
-24.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Zacha shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Zacha
Hertl
Home
51.7% (410)
59.7% (561)
Away
52.2% (408)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Zacha
Hertl
P1
57.7%
51.6%
P2
48.9%
63.8%
P3
50.2%
58.6%
OT
35.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
48.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |