Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Zacha wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.9% vs Hertl 56.6% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.7%
Defensive zone
Zacha 57.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Zacha
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Zacha
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Zacha
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (497)
56.6% (632)
-2.9%
Power Play
54.8% (84)
58.7% (206)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (64)
63.6% (22)
-26.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zacha is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Zacha shoots left. Hertl is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (529).
Home / Away
Zacha
Hertl
Home
51.0% (335)
59.7% (434)
Away
53.5% (310)
54.9% (426)
By Period
Zacha
Hertl
P1
60.0%
51.0%
P2
48.1%
64.0%
P3
48.8%
57.8%
OT
44.4%
30.8%
Final 5 min
49.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |