Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.7% vs Johnston 48.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 60.4%
Defensive zone
Zacha 56.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 51.7%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Zacha
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Zacha
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Zacha
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (646)
47.8% (623)
+5.5%
Power Play
53.0% (100)
50.8% (63)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (72)
51.4% (35)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Zacha is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Zacha shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Zacha
Johnston
Home
51.7% (410)
47.6% (351)
Away
52.2% (408)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Zacha
Johnston
P1
57.7%
49.6%
P2
48.9%
47.3%
P3
50.2%
48.0%
OT
35.7%
46.7%
Final 5 min
48.4%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:12 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |