Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.9% vs Johnston 48.1% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 61.6%
Defensive zone
Zacha 51.9%
Neutral zone
Johnston 52.7%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Zacha
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Zacha
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Zacha
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (497)
47.2% (458)
+6.5%
Power Play
54.8% (84)
50.9% (55)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (64)
51.6% (31)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Zacha is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Zacha shoots left. Johnston is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (408).
Home / Away
Zacha
Johnston
Home
51.0% (335)
47.7% (243)
Away
53.5% (310)
47.8% (301)
By Period
Zacha
Johnston
P1
60.0%
48.0%
P2
48.1%
48.2%
P3
48.8%
48.0%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:12 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |