Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Zacha wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs Johnston 50.1% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 83.7%
Defensive zone
Johnston 56.8%
Neutral zone
Zacha 61.5%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Zacha
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Zacha
Johnston
Last 7: Zacha 5-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
2
Zacha
Johnston
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
50.7% (552)
+3.2%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
61.5% (13)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
43.5% (69)
+0.8%
On even strength, Zacha has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Zacha shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Zacha
Johnston
Home
56.7% (538)
50.3% (342)
Away
52.8% (530)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Zacha
Johnston
P1
52.6%
54.4%
P2
54.8%
47.2%
P3
56.8%
49.4%
OT
59.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:08 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 14:07 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 14:09 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |