Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Zacha wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 52.8% vs Johnston 51.0% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 64.8%
Defensive zone
Johnston 73.7%
Neutral zone
Johnston 54.6%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 67.3%
32.7%
67.3%
Zacha
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Zacha
Johnston
Last 6: Zacha 2-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Zacha
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
2
3
Zacha
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (534)
52.6% (696)
+1.5%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
52.3% (88)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (96)
42.4% (125)
+2.4%
On power play, Zacha has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Zacha is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Zacha shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Zacha
Johnston
Home
53.4% (406)
52.8% (458)
Away
52.9% (333)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Zacha
Johnston
P1
56.8%
48.9%
P2
53.6%
52.3%
P3
49.2%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 04:05 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:05 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |