Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Krebs wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Krebs 46.8% vs Hertl 56.8% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 50.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Krebs
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Krebs
Hertl
Last 6: Krebs 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Krebs
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Krebs
2
0
Krebs
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Krebs
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (542)
57.0% (718)
-9.8%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
64.9% (188)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
31.3% (48)
44.2% (77)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Krebs is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Krebs shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Krebs
Hertl
Home
45.5% (312)
59.2% (463)
Away
47.0% (302)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Krebs
Hertl
P1
46.6%
56.3%
P2
42.7%
55.4%
P3
48.6%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
46.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 11:34 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:37 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 09:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |