Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 49.3%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dubois wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubois 49.0% vs Carrick 49.5% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dubois 86.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 76.0%
Neutral zone
Dubois 53.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Dubois
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Dubois
Carrick
Last 7: Dubois 3-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
2
0
Dubois
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
4
Dubois
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dubois
1
0
Dubois
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubois
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (809)
49.2% (307)
-0.5%
Power Play
50.9% (163)
66.7% (6)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
48.2% (56)
-10.7%
On power play, Carrick has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dubois is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (376).
Dubois shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Dubois
Carrick
Home
50.5% (497)
50.3% (175)
Away
47.3% (491)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Dubois
Carrick
P1
49.0%
41.0%
P2
48.2%
51.2%
P3
49.1%
55.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
48.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 06:20 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |