Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dubois on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubois 49.4% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.2%
Defensive zone
Dubois 67.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Dubois
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dubois
Hertl
Last 6: Dubois 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
2
1
Dubois
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Dubois
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubois
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (225)
58.1% (823)
-11.9%
Power Play
66.7% (27)
56.2% (265)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
62.9% (35)
+12.1%
On penalty kill, Dubois has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dubois is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (160).
Dubois shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Dubois
Hertl
Home
46.6% (163)
59.7% (561)
Away
53.6% (97)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Dubois
Hertl
P1
45.0%
51.6%
P2
52.3%
63.8%
P3
50.5%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
52.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
49.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 07:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |