Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubois 49.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 68.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Dubois
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Dubois
Hertl
Last 7: Dubois 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
2
0
Dubois
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Dubois
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dubois
1
0
Dubois
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubois
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (809)
54.1% (1,117)
-5.4%
Power Play
50.9% (163)
59.8% (296)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
34.4% (32)
+3.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dubois is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Dubois shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Dubois
Hertl
Home
50.5% (497)
54.3% (709)
Away
47.3% (491)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Dubois
Hertl
P1
49.0%
51.6%
P2
48.2%
53.6%
P3
49.1%
58.6%
OT
71.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
48.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 11:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:21 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |