Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dubois on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Dubois wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubois 47.1% vs Hertl 52.3% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Dubois 66.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.4%
Result
Pierre-Luc Dubois favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Dubois
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Dubois
Hertl
Last 10: Dubois 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
6
1
Dubois
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Dubois
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Dubois
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubois
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (1,050)
51.6% (1,084)
-5.5%
Power Play
58.0% (81)
61.0% (246)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
44.1% (136)
-19.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dubois is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (778).
Dubois shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Dubois
Hertl
Home
47.0% (581)
55.2% (696)
Away
46.8% (554)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Dubois
Hertl
P1
46.9%
55.4%
P2
50.1%
54.8%
P3
43.9%
48.9%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
46.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 30, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:15 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 08:27 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 01:45 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 01:35 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 16:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |