Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubois 49.7% vs Hertl 56.8% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 59.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 70.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 65.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Dubois
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dubois
Hertl
Last 5: Dubois 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
2
0
Dubois
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dubois
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dubois
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubois
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (842)
57.0% (718)
-7.7%
Power Play
57.1% (35)
64.9% (188)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
44.2% (77)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Dubois has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dubois is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (581).
Dubois shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Dubois
Hertl
Home
51.0% (445)
59.2% (463)
Away
48.3% (441)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Dubois
Hertl
P1
50.3%
56.3%
P2
49.5%
55.4%
P3
49.0%
60.5%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
49.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 08:50 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |