Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dubois wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubois 45.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Dubois 83.1%
Defensive zone
Dubois 87.0%
Neutral zone
Dubois 82.1%
Result
Pierre-Luc Dubois favored at 84.2%
84.2%
15.8%
Dubois
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Dubois
Hertl
Last 10: Dubois 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Dubois
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Dubois
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dubois
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubois
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (753)
54.7% (570)
-10.3%
Power Play
52.9% (34)
55.2% (143)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (18)
54.5% (77)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dubois is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Dubois shoots left. Hertl is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Dubois
Hertl
Home
47.0% (436)
56.2% (379)
Away
41.7% (369)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Dubois
Hertl
P1
46.3%
53.4%
P2
39.3%
52.7%
P3
48.8%
57.6%
OT
38.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
44.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 12:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 15:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 08:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 00:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |