Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 53.9%). Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Faksa wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Faksa 53.7% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 74.2%
Defensive zone
Faksa 77.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Faksa
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Faksa
O'Reilly
Last 6: Faksa 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Faksa
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Faksa
1
0
Faksa
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Faksa
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Faksa
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (401)
55.0% (1,084)
+1.4%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
56.8% (303)
+21.0%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (110)
40.3% (149)
+5.2%
On power play, Faksa has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Faksa is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (320).
Faksa shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Faksa
O'Reilly
Home
49.0% (249)
54.8% (759)
Away
59.4% (271)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Faksa
O'Reilly
P1
58.2%
55.3%
P2
53.6%
51.9%
P3
52.4%
54.2%
OT
40.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
52.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
54.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Radek Faksa |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 19:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |