Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Faksa 52.4% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 43-37 in 80 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.3%
Defensive zone
Faksa 82.2%
Neutral zone
Faksa 63.2%
Result
Radek Faksa favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Faksa
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
43
(80 meetings)
37
43
Faksa
O'Reilly
Last 10: Faksa 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
21
Faksa
O'Reilly
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Faksa
16
7
Faksa
O'Reilly
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
14
15
Faksa
O'Reilly
29 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Faksa
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (6,681)
56.2% (15,260)
-3.4%
Power Play
57.7% (291)
58.8% (3,445)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (1,372)
51.4% (2,811)
-2.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Faksa is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (5,193).
Faksa shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Faksa
O'Reilly
Home
52.9% (4,092)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
51.9% (4,252)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Faksa
O'Reilly
P1
53.0%
55.6%
P2
52.5%
57.0%
P3
52.0%
55.1%
OT
45.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
52.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
52.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Radek Faksa |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 19:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 12:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 3 | 10:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |