Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 50.8%). Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Greig 50.6% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 78.4%
Defensive zone
Greig 80.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
MacKinnon
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
MacKinnon
Greig
Last 6: MacKinnon 5-1 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
0
MacKinnon
Greig
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
MacKinnon
Greig
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
51.5% (336)
-1.5%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
66.7% (24)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
43.2% (81)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Greig is 57.8% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Greig
Home
53.3% (591)
50.2% (247)
Away
49.6% (581)
51.5% (194)
By Period
MacKinnon
Greig
P1
49.9%
46.9%
P2
53.2%
58.8%
P3
50.8%
48.3%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 09:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |