Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Greig wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 50.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 78.1%
Defensive zone
Greig 84.8%
Neutral zone
Greig 53.2%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Greig
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Greig
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Greig
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (336)
58.1% (823)
-6.6%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
56.2% (265)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (81)
62.9% (35)
-19.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greig is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Greig shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Greig
Hertl
Home
50.2% (247)
59.7% (561)
Away
51.5% (194)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Greig
Hertl
P1
46.9%
51.6%
P2
58.8%
63.8%
P3
48.3%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 15:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |