Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Greig wins 42.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 45.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 90.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 83.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 85.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 86.7%
13.3%
86.7%
Greig
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Greig
Hertl
Last 5: Greig 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
1
0
Greig
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
3
1
Greig
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (414)
57.0% (718)
-11.8%
Power Play
28.6% (14)
64.9% (188)
-36.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (21)
44.2% (77)
-15.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +36.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greig is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Greig shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Greig
Hertl
Home
46.4% (196)
59.2% (463)
Away
41.9% (253)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Greig
Hertl
P1
40.8%
56.3%
P2
46.4%
55.4%
P3
43.9%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:44 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |