Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Greig wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 48.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 89.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 79.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 75.6%
24.4%
75.6%
Greig
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Greig
Hertl
Last 8: Greig 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
1
0
Greig
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greig
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
3
2
Greig
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,133)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.3%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
59.3% (1,975)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
46.3% (806)
+0.2%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Greig shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Greig
Hertl
Home
49.8% (681)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
47.7% (698)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Greig
Hertl
P1
46.3%
53.6%
P2
51.2%
54.1%
P3
48.8%
55.3%
OT
28.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
53.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 15:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:44 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |