Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 52.9% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 74.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 74.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 74.8%
25.2%
74.8%
Thomas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Thomas
Hertl
Last 9: Thomas 6-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
1
Thomas
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
1
Thomas
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
1
Thomas
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (1,166)
57.0% (718)
-3.8%
Power Play
56.9% (262)
64.9% (188)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (221)
44.2% (77)
+4.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Thomas shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Thomas
Hertl
Home
51.6% (830)
59.2% (463)
Away
54.7% (819)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Thomas
Hertl
P1
52.7%
56.3%
P2
55.6%
55.4%
P3
50.6%
60.5%
OT
61.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 10:39 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 07:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 03:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |