Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). Thomas wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 54.5% vs Hertl 55.4% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.5%
Defensive zone
Thomas 63.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 51.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Thomas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Thomas
Hertl
Last 10: Thomas 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
5
4
Thomas
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
4
3
Thomas
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Thomas
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (990)
54.1% (717)
+1.2%
Power Play
54.2% (190)
61.9% (210)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (158)
58.1% (31)
-5.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thomas is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (994).
Thomas shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Thomas
Hertl
Home
55.1% (690)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.5% (648)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Thomas
Hertl
P1
55.5%
57.1%
P2
56.4%
54.0%
P3
51.5%
56.6%
OT
69.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.6%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:00 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:57 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 19:55 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:50 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |