Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 51.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.6%
Defensive zone
Thomas 68.9%
Neutral zone
Thomas 57.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Thomas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Thomas
Hertl
Last 10: Thomas 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Thomas
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
5
0
Thomas
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Thomas
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (615)
58.1% (823)
-8.0%
Power Play
62.2% (98)
56.2% (265)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (114)
62.9% (35)
-10.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Thomas shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Thomas
Hertl
Home
51.9% (374)
59.7% (561)
Away
51.9% (453)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Thomas
Hertl
P1
49.2%
51.6%
P2
55.3%
63.8%
P3
50.6%
58.6%
OT
57.1%
28.6%
Final 5 min
51.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 07:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:09 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |