Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Colton on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Colton 51.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Colton leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Colton
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
8
(18 meetings)
10
8
Colton
Hertl
Last 10: Colton 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Colton
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
4
3
Colton
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Colton
4
2
Colton
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Colton
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (1,800)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.2%
Power Play
48.8% (162)
59.3% (1,975)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
46.3% (806)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Colton is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,295).
Colton shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Colton
Hertl
Home
51.9% (1,013)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
50.2% (978)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Colton
Hertl
P1
53.5%
53.6%
P2
52.6%
54.1%
P3
47.9%
55.3%
OT
25.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
46.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
51.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:44 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ross Colton |