Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Colton wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Colton 45.2% vs Hertl 55.4% (-15.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Colton 60.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.2%
Neutral zone
Colton 52.6%
Result
Ross Colton favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Colton
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Colton
Hertl
Last 7: Colton 3-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Colton
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Colton
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Colton
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Colton
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.3% (75)
54.1% (717)
-12.8%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
61.9% (210)
-26.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
58.1% (31)
-18.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Colton is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (72).
Colton shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Colton
Hertl
Home
42.9% (49)
58.1% (492)
Away
37.5% (48)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Colton
Hertl
P1
48.9%
57.1%
P2
33.3%
54.0%
P3
31.8%
56.6%
Final 5 min
39.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
40.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Ross Colton |