Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Colton wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Colton 51.4% vs Hertl 56.8% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Colton 50.6%
Defensive zone
Colton 66.3%
Neutral zone
Colton 58.3%
Result
Ross Colton favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Colton
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Colton
Hertl
Last 5: Colton 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Colton
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Colton
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Colton
1
0
Colton
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Colton
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (741)
57.0% (718)
-4.9%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
64.9% (188)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
44.2% (77)
-2.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Colton is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (551).
Colton shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Colton
Hertl
Home
54.0% (411)
59.2% (463)
Away
49.1% (409)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Colton
Hertl
P1
56.7%
56.3%
P2
53.1%
55.4%
P3
46.3%
60.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
51.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:44 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Offensive | Ross Colton |