Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 40.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 40.0% vs Carpenter 50.2% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 67.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 87.8%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 68.2%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Kempe
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kempe
Carpenter
Last 5: Kempe 3-2 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
0
Kempe
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Kempe
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
38.1% (607)
48.4% (314)
-10.3%
Power Play
42.1% (76)
60.0% (5)
-17.9%
On power play, Carpenter has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Kempe is 40.1% vs right-shot opponents (269).
Kempe shoots left. Carpenter is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Home / Away
Kempe
Carpenter
Home
39.1% (312)
55.8% (197)
Away
38.0% (371)
44.8% (201)
By Period
Kempe
Carpenter
P1
39.4%
48.3%
P2
37.7%
47.8%
P3
39.0%
54.6%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
30.7%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
38.5%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2018 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 27, 2018 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 26, 2018 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 26, 2018 | 2 | 04:46 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 26, 2018 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |