Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 44.0% vs Carpenter 44.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 73.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 76.2%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 59.3%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Kempe
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kempe
Carpenter
Last 5: Kempe 3-2 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
0
Kempe
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Kempe
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
38.3% (201)
46.2% (474)
-7.9%
Power Play
83.3% (12)
28.6% (7)
+54.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
32.6% (129)
+17.4%
On power play, Kempe has a +54.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Kempe is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Kempe shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Kempe
Carpenter
Home
39.2% (102)
46.5% (303)
Away
43.0% (121)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Kempe
Carpenter
P1
35.9%
44.2%
P2
37.2%
40.4%
P3
50.0%
44.2%
OT
0.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
40.8%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
41.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 03:37 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |