Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Carpenter wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 51.2% vs Johansen 52.4% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 84.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 79.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 55.0%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Carpenter
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Carpenter
Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carpenter
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carpenter
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (299)
49.4% (1,010)
+3.8%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
62.3% (236)
-29.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (86)
67.2% (67)
-20.7%
On power play, Johansen has a +29.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Carpenter is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Carpenter shoots right. Johansen is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Johansen
Home
54.6% (207)
54.7% (655)
Away
48.1% (181)
50.6% (658)
By Period
Carpenter
Johansen
P1
52.3%
52.2%
P2
51.5%
50.7%
P3
50.8%
54.8%
Final 5 min
44.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 11:26 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |