Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 51.2% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 91.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 74.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Carpenter
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
0
Carpenter
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
0
Carpenter
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (299)
56.6% (1,064)
-3.4%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
60.4% (260)
-27.1%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (86)
54.0% (261)
-7.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Carpenter shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Home
54.6% (207)
54.9% (801)
Away
48.1% (181)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Carpenter
O'Reilly
P1
52.3%
58.0%
P2
51.5%
56.7%
P3
50.8%
55.4%
Final 5 min
44.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |