Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 52.2% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-1.8%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 59.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Carpenter
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (113)
56.1% (690)
-3.0%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
64.6% (96)
+35.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
45.9% (109)
+14.1%
On power play, Carpenter has a +35.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carpenter is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Carpenter shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Home
58.5% (65)
58.3% (408)
Away
49.2% (59)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Carpenter
O'Reilly
P1
65.8%
57.7%
P2
50.0%
54.8%
P3
47.9%
55.2%
Final 5 min
43.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
54.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%