Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.2% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 83.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 78.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Last 6: Carpenter 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Carpenter
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
0
Carpenter
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
0
Carpenter
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (404)
55.0% (1,084)
-6.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
56.8% (303)
+43.2%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (101)
40.3% (149)
+3.3%
On power play, Carpenter has a +43.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Carpenter shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Home
48.9% (274)
54.8% (759)
Away
46.6% (232)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Carpenter
O'Reilly
P1
51.9%
55.3%
P2
49.4%
51.9%
P3
41.8%
54.2%
OT
100.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
50.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 12:52 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:13 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |