Ryan Carpenter vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 23 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 32-16 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Carpenter 92.0%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 90.2%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 85.4%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
32
(48 meetings)
16
32
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Last 10: Carpenter 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
21
Carpenter
O'Reilly
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
8
4
Carpenter
O'Reilly
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
7
Carpenter
O'Reilly
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
56.2% (15,260)
-6.6%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
58.8% (3,445)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
51.4% (2,811)
-7.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Carpenter shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (1,290)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Carpenter
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
55.6%
P2
47.7%
57.0%
P3
48.0%
55.1%
OT
55.6%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 12:52 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:13 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 09:28 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 03:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 00:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 15:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 12:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 05:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 04:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |