Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 51.2% vs Steel 49.4% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 80.0%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 72.0%
Neutral zone
Steel 55.0%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Carpenter
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Carpenter
Steel
Last 9: Carpenter 4-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
Carpenter
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
0
Carpenter
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carpenter
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (299)
49.3% (383)
+3.9%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
59.1% (22)
-25.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (86)
14.3% (7)
+32.2%
On penalty kill, Carpenter has a +32.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Carpenter shoots right. Steel is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Steel
Home
54.6% (207)
49.4% (180)
Away
48.1% (181)
49.1% (232)
By Period
Carpenter
Steel
P1
52.3%
51.9%
P2
51.5%
43.8%
P3
50.8%
52.6%
Final 5 min
44.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:32 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 11:42 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:22 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Sam Steel |