Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Steel 50.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 62.0%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 79.8%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 60.3%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Carpenter
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
Carpenter
Steel
Last 10: Carpenter 5-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
6
Carpenter
Steel
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
4
3
Carpenter
Steel
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carpenter
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
50.6% (2,876)
-1.0%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
62.6% (179)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
37.4% (254)
+6.5%
On power play, Steel has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Carpenter shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Steel
Home
51.2% (1,290)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Carpenter
Steel
P1
49.6%
51.9%
P2
47.7%
49.5%
P3
48.0%
49.6%
OT
55.6%
41.9%
Final 5 min
49.6%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 07:22 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:32 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 11:42 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:22 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 2 | 05:54 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 17:35 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 09:08 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 3, 2019 | 3 | 03:13 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 3, 2019 | 2 | 06:07 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |