Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 47.8%). Look for Carpenter on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.2% vs Gourde 48.0% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 67.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 55.9%
Neutral zone
Gourde 50.2%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Carpenter
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Carpenter
Gourde
Last 7: Carpenter 4-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carpenter
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carpenter
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
1
Carpenter
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (404)
48.0% (914)
+0.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
54.2% (48)
+45.8%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (101)
43.9% (123)
-0.3%
On power play, Carpenter has a +45.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Carpenter shoots right. Gourde is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Gourde
Home
48.9% (274)
50.2% (512)
Away
46.6% (232)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Carpenter
Gourde
P1
51.9%
50.0%
P2
49.4%
45.3%
P3
41.8%
48.6%
OT
100.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 19:40 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:51 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 07:27 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:36 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |