Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 48.2%). Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 60.5%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 66.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 56.5%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Carpenter
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
Carpenter
Gourde
Last 10: Carpenter 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
5
Carpenter
Gourde
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
3
Carpenter
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
4
2
Carpenter
Gourde
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
48.4% (4,954)
+1.2%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
57.4% (376)
-15.9%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
39.9% (554)
+4.0%
On power play, Gourde has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Carpenter shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Gourde
Home
51.2% (1,290)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Carpenter
Gourde
P1
49.6%
49.9%
P2
47.7%
47.4%
P3
48.0%
47.5%
OT
55.6%
37.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 19:40 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:51 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 07:27 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:36 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 17, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 17, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 01:25 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 3 | 05:51 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 13:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |