Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Donato wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 48.1% vs Hertl 57.2% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 82.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 82.6%
17.4%
82.6%
Donato
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Donato
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
2
0
Donato
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (258)
58.1% (823)
-10.0%
Power Play
43.2% (37)
56.2% (265)
-13.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Donato is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (169).
Donato shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Donato
Hertl
Home
45.8% (142)
59.7% (561)
Away
49.0% (153)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Donato
Hertl
P1
48.1%
51.6%
P2
46.6%
63.8%
P3
46.8%
58.6%
OT
75.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
56.7%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |