Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Donato wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 45.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 64.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 71.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
Donato
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Donato
Hertl
Last 5: Donato 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Donato
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
0
Donato
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Donato
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (400)
54.1% (717)
-10.6%
Power Play
48.7% (119)
61.9% (210)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
58.1% (31)
-24.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Donato shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Donato
Hertl
Home
50.2% (279)
58.1% (492)
Away
38.2% (246)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Donato
Hertl
P1
44.6%
57.1%
P2
46.6%
54.0%
P3
42.0%
56.6%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |