Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Donato wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 44.9% vs Hertl 54.2% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 80.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 71.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Donato
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Donato
Hertl
Last 9: Donato 5-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Donato
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Donato
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
3
1
Donato
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,179)
53.8% (8,268)
-9.6%
Power Play
46.3% (246)
59.3% (1,975)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
46.3% (806)
-9.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Donato shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Donato
Hertl
Home
47.2% (743)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
41.6% (693)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Donato
Hertl
P1
43.4%
53.6%
P2
45.1%
54.1%
P3
44.4%
55.3%
OT
70.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |