Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Hartman 45.5% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 88.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 63.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Tavares
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Hartman
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
44.8% (830)
+13.2%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
47.8% (92)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
37.5% (16)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hartman
Home
57.8% (614)
45.0% (515)
Away
57.8% (554)
44.9% (423)
By Period
Tavares
Hartman
P1
58.0%
46.5%
P2
56.9%
39.9%
P3
58.4%
48.6%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 04:45 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 03:27 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |