Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Hartman wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.5% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 73.6%
26.4%
73.6%
Hartman
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
8
(18 meetings)
10
8
Hartman
O'Reilly
Last 10: Hartman 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
2
Hartman
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Hartman
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
3
Hartman
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (830)
55.4% (826)
-10.6%
Power Play
47.8% (92)
57.9% (221)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
50.4% (129)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Hartman shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Hartman
O'Reilly
Home
45.0% (515)
55.8% (579)
Away
44.9% (423)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Hartman
O'Reilly
P1
46.5%
57.7%
P2
39.9%
54.8%
P3
48.6%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:48 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:14 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 19:38 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 19:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 16:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 10:01 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:40 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |