Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Hartman wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 48.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.6%
Defensive zone
Hartman 73.1%
Neutral zone
Hartman 58.3%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Hartman
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Hartman
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hartman
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hartman
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hartman
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (520)
56.2% (983)
-8.1%
Power Play
44.7% (47)
55.5% (254)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (23)
52.0% (102)
-4.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hartman is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Hartman shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Hartman
O'Reilly
Home
48.3% (360)
56.2% (697)
Away
47.0% (230)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Hartman
O'Reilly
P1
48.5%
54.5%
P2
45.2%
55.5%
P3
49.6%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |