Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 31 meetings). Hartman wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 54-24 in 78 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 94.6%
Defensive zone
Hartman 97.5%
Neutral zone
Hartman 96.9%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 96.4%
96.4%
3.6%
Hartman
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
54
(78 meetings)
24
54
Hartman
O'Reilly
Last 10: Hartman 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
17
Hartman
O'Reilly
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
23
Hartman
O'Reilly
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
14
Hartman
O'Reilly
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (4,235)
56.2% (15,260)
-11.0%
Power Play
47.4% (443)
58.8% (3,445)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (262)
51.4% (2,811)
-9.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,559).
Hartman shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Hartman
O'Reilly
Home
46.7% (2,589)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
43.6% (2,351)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Hartman
O'Reilly
P1
46.0%
55.6%
P2
42.9%
57.0%
P3
46.8%
55.1%
OT
53.8%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:48 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:14 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 19:38 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 19:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 16:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 10:01 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:40 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |