Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hartman wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.5% vs Johnston 48.5% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 50.9%
Defensive zone
Hartman 52.2%
Neutral zone
Hartman 52.8%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Hartman
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hartman
Johnston
Last 5: Hartman 2-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Hartman
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
1
Hartman
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Hartman
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (830)
47.8% (623)
-3.0%
Power Play
47.8% (92)
50.8% (63)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
51.4% (35)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Hartman is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Hartman shoots right. Johnston is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Hartman
Johnston
Home
45.0% (515)
47.6% (351)
Away
44.9% (423)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Hartman
Johnston
P1
46.5%
49.6%
P2
39.9%
47.3%
P3
48.6%
48.0%
OT
50.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
43.5%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |