Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 38.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Johansen 54.3% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 85.2%
Defensive zone
Johansen 50.2%
Neutral zone
Johansen 64.8%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 66.7%
33.3%
66.7%
Nelson
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Johansen
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Johansen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
54.0% (1,251)
-11.0%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
58.9% (158)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
55.6% (63)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Nelson is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Nelson shoots left. Johansen is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,042).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johansen
Home
41.9% (391)
56.3% (746)
Away
45.5% (400)
52.8% (726)
By Period
Nelson
Johansen
P1
47.1%
54.0%
P2
43.0%
53.8%
P3
40.9%
55.7%
OT
63.6%
59.1%
Final 5 min
43.6%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 07:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 17:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 03:31 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |