Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Carpenter wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 49.1% vs Johansen 51.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 73.8%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 55.6%
Neutral zone
Johansen 60.0%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Carpenter
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Carpenter
Johansen
Last 7: Carpenter 4-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carpenter
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
2
Carpenter
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (81)
51.5% (615)
+0.4%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
54.3% (140)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
46.3% (67)
-3.4%
On power play, Johansen has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Carpenter is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (35).
Carpenter shoots right. Johansen is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Johansen
Home
60.3% (68)
52.4% (389)
Away
34.5% (58)
50.8% (433)
By Period
Carpenter
Johansen
P1
43.2%
53.4%
P2
55.8%
49.1%
P3
46.2%
51.5%
Final 5 min
40.6%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2021 | 2 | 15:11 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 23, 2021 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 23, 2021 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 3 | 19:59 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 27, 2021 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |