Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Johansen wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 55.1% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 18-8 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 93.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 79.8%
20.2%
79.8%
Johansen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
8
(26 meetings)
18
8
Johansen
O'Reilly
Last 10: Johansen 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
6
4
Johansen
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
6
2
Johansen
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
6
2
Johansen
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,157)
60.3% (1,517)
-4.4%
Power Play
56.5% (237)
61.5% (387)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (67)
55.0% (220)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Johansen is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,004).
Johansen shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Johansen
O'Reilly
Home
55.8% (733)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
55.1% (728)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Johansen
O'Reilly
P1
53.5%
56.8%
P2
55.9%
64.6%
P3
57.2%
58.5%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
55.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 13:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 09:55 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 04:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 08:10 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 3 | 01:18 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 2 | 10:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |