Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 88 meetings). Johansen wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 53.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 134-130 in 264 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 52.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 58.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Johansen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
134
-
130
(264 meetings)
134
130
Johansen
O'Reilly
Last 10: Johansen 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
61
27
Johansen
O'Reilly
88 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
34
52
Johansen
O'Reilly
86 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
39
51
Johansen
O'Reilly
90 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (11,017)
56.2% (15,260)
-3.1%
Power Play
56.2% (2,163)
58.8% (3,445)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (978)
51.4% (2,811)
-0.9%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Johansen shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Johansen
O'Reilly
Home
55.0% (7,001)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
51.7% (7,158)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Johansen
O'Reilly
P1
53.2%
55.6%
P2
53.9%
57.0%
P3
52.8%
55.1%
OT
58.2%
62.2%
Final 5 min
52.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 03:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 17:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2022 | OT | 00:15 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 13:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 12:44 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |