Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Johansen wins 60.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 58.2% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 78.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 68.6%
Neutral zone
Johansen 63.3%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Johansen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Johansen
O'Reilly
Last 10: Johansen 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
7
1
Johansen
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Johansen
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Johansen
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (625)
56.1% (690)
+3.7%
Power Play
58.2% (196)
64.6% (96)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (27)
45.9% (109)
+6.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Johansen shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Johansen
O'Reilly
Home
60.3% (436)
58.3% (408)
Away
58.0% (412)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Johansen
O'Reilly
P1
61.3%
57.7%
P2
60.4%
54.8%
P3
56.0%
55.2%
OT
56.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
55.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2022 | OT | 00:15 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 13:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 12:44 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |